"Published in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C."

Includes bibliographical references and index.

The Growing Importance of Middle Eastern Energy Exports -- Oil versus Other Sources of Energy -- The Size of Middle Eastern and North African Oil Reserves -- Projected Increases in MENA Oil Production Capacity Through 2030 -- Reference Case Estimates of the Increase in Production Capacity -- Key Uncertainties in Estimates of Increases in Production Capacity -- Projected Increases in MENA Oil Exports Through 2025 -- The Direction of MENA Oil Exports and Its Importance in a Global Economy -- Dependence on Indirect Imports -- Dependence on the Flow of Oil to the Global Economy -- Changes in the Nature of Petroleum Imports from the MENA Region -- The Trends in U.S. Petroleum Imports -- The Importance of MENA Gas, Resources, and Exports -- MENA Gas Reserves -- MENA Gas Consumption and Oil Exports -- MENA Gas Exports -- Dealing with an Uncertain Future -- The Geopolitics and Security Dimension of Middle Eastern and North African Energy Exports -- A History of Conflict and Tension -- Militarism, Military Expenditures, and Arms Imports -- The Overall Level of Military Efforts -- The Problem of Arms Imports -- The Threat to Energy Facilities -- Proliferation -- Proliferators in the Middle East -- The Threat to Energy Facilities -- Terrorism and State Terrorism -- The Problem of Islamic Extremism and Violence -- The Regional and Global Impact of Islamic Extremist Terrorism -- The Clash Within a Civilization, the Arab-Israeli Conflict, and the Western Counterreaction -- State Support of Terrorism and the Use of Terrorist Proxies -- Terrorism and Middle East Energy -- Regional Self-Defense and the Role of the West and Western Power Projection -- Energy Vulnerability and Maritime Chokepoints -- Oil Interruption and Embargoes -- The Importance of MENA Energy Exports -- The Problem of Guessing at Future Scenarios -- The Economic Impact of Energy Interruptions -- The EIA "Rules of Thumb" for Calculating the Impact of Energy Interruptions -- Political, Economic, and Demographic Pressures on Middle Eastern Energy Production and Exports -- The Political Dimension -- Aging Leaders, Unstable Regimes, Uncertain Replacements, and Islamic Extremism -- The Next Class of Technocrats -- The Challenge of Limited Development and Economic Growth -- Population Growth, Demographic Pressures, and a "Youth Explosion" -- Trade, Oil Wealth, and Oil Nonwealth -- The Impact of Oil and Gas Export Revenues -- The Interaction among Oil Revenues, Economic Development, and Demographics -- Ability to Fund Investment to Increase Oil and Gas Production -- Current Energy Developments: The Trends by Subregion and Country -- The Importance of the Gulf Region -- Gulf Oil Exports -- Gulf Gas Exports -- Country Trends and Risks -- Saudi Arabia -- Saudi Oil Production Plans -- EIA versus Saudi Projections -- Key Uncertainties in Estimates of Saudi and Other MENA Increases in Production: The Simmons Challenge -- The Saudi Aramco Response -- Saudi Ability to Ship and Transport Oil -- Saudi Natural Gas Resources -- Saudi Need to Increase Domestic Use of Natural Gas -- Saudi Energy Risk -- Iraq -- Iraqi Energy Resources -- Iraqi Oil Production -- Iraqi Energy Export Capabilities -- Iraqi Gas Development -- Iraq's Future Energy Development Plans -- Iraqi Energy Risk -- Iran -- Iranian Energy Resources -- Iranian Efforts to Expand Oil Production and Exports -- Iranian Oil Production Goals and Investment Requirements -- Recent Iranian Oil Development Deals -- Caspian Energy Issues -- Iranian Energy Export Capabilities -- Iranian Gas Development -- Iranian Gas Pipelines and Transport Issues -- Iranian Energy Risk -- Kuwait -- Kuwait's Uncertain Oil Development -- Kuwaiti Refining and Petrochemicals -- Kuwaiti Energy Export Facilities -- Kuwaiti Gas Development -- Kuwaiti Energy Risk -- The United Arab Emirates -- UAE Oil Development -- UAE Refineries and Petrochemicals -- UAE Natural Gas Development -- UAE Energy Risk -- Bahrain -- Oman -- Omani Oil Development -- Omani Refineries and Petrochemicals -- Omani Natural Gas -- Omani Energy Risk -- Qatar -- Qatari Oil Development -- Qatari Gas Development -- Qatari Energy Risk -- Yemen -- Yemeni Oil Development -- Yemeni Refining and Petrochemicals -- Yemeni Natural Gas Development -- Yemeni Energy Risk -- The Levant -- Egypt -- Egyptian Oil Development -- Egyptian Refineries and Petrochemicals -- Egypt's Role in Energy Transport Routes -- Egyptian Natural Gas Development -- Egyptian Energy Risk -- Syria -- Syrian Oil Development -- Syrian Energy Export Routes -- Syrian Natural Gas Development -- Syrian Energy Risk -- Jordan -- Israel -- Israeli Dependence on Oil Imports -- Israeli and Palestinian Gas Development -- Israeli Energy Risk -- North Africa -- Algeria -- Algerian Oil Development -- Algerian Gas Development -- Algerian Energy Risk -- Libya -- Libyan Oil Development -- Libyan Gas Development -- Libyan Energy Risk -- Supply, Demand, Financing, and the Future of Energy in the Middle East and North Africa -- Future Demand for Oil and Gas Exports, Future Export Prices, and the Resulting Flow of Income into the Region -- The Impact of a Prolonged Period of Low Oil and Gas Revenues on Regional Stability -- A Slow Energy Development Scenario -- The MENA Cash Squeeze -- Future Patterns of Investment Flows from Inside and Outside the Region -- The Ability to Fund MENA Energy Development in an Uncertain Future -- MENA Oil Development and Investment -- MENA Gas Development and Investment -- Energy Development versus Human Development: A Growing Conflict in Public Investment and Expenditure Priorities -- Geopolitics, Domestic Development, and the Future of Energy in the Middle East -- The Key Forces Shaping the Regional Geopolitics of Energy -- Possible Futures -- Moving toward Growth and Stability -- Muddling Through -- Failed States.