"Published in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C."

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Defining the Middle East Military Balance -- The Subregionalization of the Middle East Military Balance -- Looking Beyond the Numbers: The Scenario Problem -- The Strengths and Limitations of Numbers -- Deciding What to Count -- Problems in Counting Major Combat Units -- The Strengths and Weaknesses of Manpower Numbers -- The Strengths and Weaknesses of Equipment Numbers -- Comparisons of Military Effort and Resources -- Comparisons of Arms Sales and Imports -- Looking Beyond the Numbers: The Unquantifiable Aspects of Force Quality -- Scoring Systems, War Gaming, and Simulation -- The Changing Face of the Middle East Military Balance -- Changes in the Nature of Warfare -- The Impact of the Revolution in Military Affairs -- The Problem of Resources -- Key Analytic Issues Affecting the Middle East Military Balance -- "The Most Militarized Area in the World": Regional Military Expenditures, Arms Transfers, and Manpower Resources -- The Growing Resource Challenge -- Population Growth, Demographic Pressures, and a "Youth Explosion" -- Declines in Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers -- The Strengths and Weaknesses in Current Sources -- Detailed Trends in Military Effort and Expenditures -- Broad Patterns in Middle East Arms Transfers -- The Dynamics of Middle Eastern Manpower and Demographics -- North Africa and the Maghreb -- The Military Balance in the Maghreb -- Resources and Force Trends -- National Military Forces -- Morocco -- Algeria -- Libya -- Land-Based Air Defenses -- Tunisia -- Future Patterns in Military Development -- Major Trends in Maghreb Military Forces -- The Arab-Israeli States -- The Arab-Israeli Military Balance -- Israel -- Continuing Strategic Challenges -- Egypt -- Jordan -- Lebanon -- Palestine -- Syria -- Major Trends in Arab-Israeli Forces -- The Gulf Military Balance and Force Developments in the Northern Gulf -- Dynamics of the Gulf Military Balance -- Analysis of the Gulf Military Balance -- Developments in the North Gulf -- Iran's Erratic Military Modernization -- Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (Pasdaran) -- Quds (Qods) Forces -- The Basij and Other Paramilitary Forces -- Detailed Trends in Iranian Forces -- Iraq's Military Collapse -- Iraqi Failures in Leadership and Command and Control -- Lack of Military Modernization and Supply -- Problems in Land Forces -- Problems in Paramilitary and Irregular Forces -- Problems in Air and Air Defense Forces -- Military Forces since the Iraq War -- Other Factors Shaping Iraq's Military Performance -- Force Developments in the Southern Gulf -- Key Factors Shaping Southern Gulf Forces -- Key Issues in Force Development -- Trends in Military Expenditures and Arms Imports -- Saudi Arabia -- National Guard -- Bahrain -- Kuwait -- Oman -- Qatar -- The United Arab Emirates -- Yemen -- Land Forces -- Naval Forces -- Air Forces -- Gulf Conventional Military Forces -- Terrorist and Extremist Movements -- The Problem of Islamic Extremism and Violence -- The Regional and Global Impact of Islamic Extremist Terrorism -- The Clash Within a Civilization, the Arab-Israeli Conflict, and the Western Counterreaction -- State Support of Terrorism and the Use of Terrorist Proxies -- Identifying State Sponsors of Terrorism and Regional Terrorist Organizations -- Proliferation and Weapons of Mass Destruction -- The Nature of the Problem: The Weapons and Their Effects -- The Proliferators, Their Motives, and War-Fighting Issues -- Changes in Technology -- Covert and Terrorist Attacks and the Risk of "Superterrorism" -- Arms Control Issues -- Broader Approaches to Counterproliferation -- Country-by-Country Threat Analysis.

Noted Middle East military expert Anthony H. Cordesman details the complex trends that come into play in determining the military balance in a region that has become so critical to world peace. This ready resource provides a wealth of information on military expenditures and major arms systems, as well as qualitative trends, by country and by zone. However, as Cordesman stresses, because the "greater Middle East" is more a matter of rhetoric than military reality, mere data summarizing trends in 23 different countries is no substitute for a substantive explanation. Using tables, graphs, and charts, this study explores every aspect of the regional military balance with attention to sub-regional balances, internal civil conflicts, and low level border tensions.

The Middle East is certainly one of the most militarized areas in the world, and changes in technology, access to weapons of mass destruction, and political instability contribute to a situation that has long been in constant flux. Some of the regional flash-points covered in this study include the Maghreb (North Africa); the Arab-Israeli conflict (dominated by Israel versus Syria); and the Gulf (divided into those states that view Iran as the primary threat and those who lived in fear of Iraq). Internal conflicts, such as those in Mauritania, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen, increasingly dominate regional tensions. In addition, border conflicts within the region and with neighboring countries could further aggravate the delicate balance.