Includes bibliographical references (p.271-286) and index.

Originally published: Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press, c2000. in hardcover edition.

"With new material on the real estate bubble." -- Cover.

The stock market in historical perspective -- The real estate market in historical perspective -- Precipitating factors: the capital explosion, the internet, and other events -- Amplification mechanisms: naturally occuring Ponzi processes -- The news media -- New era economic thinking -- New eras and bubbles around the world -- Psychological anchors for the market -- Herd behavior and epidemics -- Efficient markets, random walks, and bubbles -- Investor learning and unlearning -- Speculative volatility in a free society.

Taking his book's title and thesis from Alan Greenspan's 1996 description of investors, Shiller (economics, Yale Univ.) studies the current booming U.S. stock market in historical terms. His research into past U.S. and international markets indicates that during every speculative bubble there was always widespread consensus that high valuations were justified by each market's special circumstances. Every large market correction seemed to result from popular consensus rather than specific events or news. Shiller says that past bull and bear markets, though often based initially on sound fundamental reasoning, fed upon themselves to go beyond what the facts justified. He challenges the efficient market theory, demonstrating that markets cannot be explained historically by the movement of company earnings or dividends. He concludes that the current U.S. stock market is a speculative bubble awaiting correction. While the book certainly belongs in all academic business collections, public libraries should also purchase it as a counterweight to the plethora of get-rich-quick investment guides.Lawrence R. Maxted, Gannon Univ., Erie, PA Copyright 2000 Cahners Business Information, Inc. From: Reed Elsevier Inc.