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Ahead of the curve : a commonsense guide to forecasting business and market cycles / Joseph H. Ellis.

By: Publication details: Boston, MA : Harvard Business School Press, c2005.Description: xxiii, 276 p. : ill. ; 25 cmContent type:
  • text
Media type:
  • unmediated
Carrier type:
  • volume
ISBN:
  • 1591396913 (hbk.):
  • 9781591396918 (hbk.)
Subject(s): LOC classification:
  • HB3730 .E55 2005
Contents:
"Seeing" The Economy: Creating Order Out of Chaos -- Seeing Around Economic Corners -- Making Sense of the Economy -- Getting Out of Harm's Way: Redefining Economic Downturns -- Economic forecasting -- The "ROCET" Method: Antidote for the Recession Obsession -- Smart Economic Tracking: Getting the Noise Out -- The Nature of Leading Indicators -- Consumer Spending: Cornerstone of the Economy and Stock Market -- Consumer Spending: Powering the Demand Chain in the Economy -- Consumer Spending and the Stock Market -- Forecasting Consumer Spending -- Predicting the Consumer: Do It on the Numbers; Lose the Psychology -- Real Earnings: Powerhouse of the Economy -- Employment and Unemployment: The Economy's Deceptive Laggard -- Interest rates, The Fed's Mystique, and The Core Role of Inflation -- Interest Rates and the Stock Market: A Concerned Look Forward -- Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: There Is a Link -- From Theory to Practice -- "Drilling Down:" Forecasting For Your Own Industry or Company -- Conclusion: Making Economics Happen -- Credit: Consumer Spending's "Swing Factor" -- Charting Economic Cause and Effect: Does it Work Outside the U.S.? -- Major Industry Data Series -- www.AheadoftheCurvetheBook.com.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 265-266) and index.

"Seeing" The Economy: Creating Order Out of Chaos -- Seeing Around Economic Corners -- Making Sense of the Economy -- Getting Out of Harm's Way: Redefining Economic Downturns -- Economic forecasting -- The "ROCET" Method: Antidote for the Recession Obsession -- Smart Economic Tracking: Getting the Noise Out -- The Nature of Leading Indicators -- Consumer Spending: Cornerstone of the Economy and Stock Market -- Consumer Spending: Powering the Demand Chain in the Economy -- Consumer Spending and the Stock Market -- Forecasting Consumer Spending -- Predicting the Consumer: Do It on the Numbers; Lose the Psychology -- Real Earnings: Powerhouse of the Economy -- Employment and Unemployment: The Economy's Deceptive Laggard -- Interest rates, The Fed's Mystique, and The Core Role of Inflation -- Interest Rates and the Stock Market: A Concerned Look Forward -- Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: There Is a Link -- From Theory to Practice -- "Drilling Down:" Forecasting For Your Own Industry or Company -- Conclusion: Making Economics Happen -- Credit: Consumer Spending's "Swing Factor" -- Charting Economic Cause and Effect: Does it Work Outside the U.S.? -- Major Industry Data Series -- www.AheadoftheCurvetheBook.com.

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