Includes bibliographical references and index.

Introduction : the theory and practice of predicting political change -- The Iran policy of the Carter administration : triggering a revolution and reaping a whirlwind -- The Carter administration and the uncharted territory of the Islamic republic of Iran -- The Reagan administration's balancing act : confusion in Washington and Tehran -- The Bush administration : to contain or not to contain -- The Clinton administration : containing Iran -- The Clinton administration and Khatami's Iran : a new era in relations? -- The Bush administration : back to containment -- The Bush administration and the failure of containment -- The Obama administration : the rise and fall of the Iran outreach project -- Conclusions : reflections on American politics and intelligence in Iran.