Includes bibliographical references (p. 509-523) and index.

Assesses the forces that will buffet the United States and the global order through 2050.

Part I. National Security in the New Age -- 1. A World Wounded -- The Post-Cold War Security Environment -- The Need to Adjust Illusion to Reality -- Public Culture Distorts Reality -- Antiterrorism Measures Are Not Enough -- Mastering the Illusions of the Public Culture -- Chapter 1. Key Points -- 2. Long-Term Economic Realism -- Vortexes of Danger -- Why Economic Realism and Scientific Objectivity Are Sorely Needed -- Our Country Has Changed -- The Coming Threats to American Security -- Strategic Independence -- The Need for the International Order to Adapt to Changes among Nations and Regions of the World -- Presidential Candor -- Key Points -- Part II. American Public Culture and the World -- 3. "Smooth Comforts False" - The Illusions That Confuse Us -- Ways in Which Public Culture Influences Thinking about the World -- Harmonism -- Convergence -- Unjustified Optimism -- The Persistence of Public Culture -- Public Culture: A Formal Expression -- Chapter 3. Key Points -- 4. Towers of Illusion: Dysfunctional Behaviors -- Simplification -- Naive Motivations -- Either/Or Choices -- Overemphasis on Relationships -- How Simplification Misleads -- Hype -- Distortion -- Mastering the Illusions of Public Culture -- Chapter 4. Key Points -- 5. Mythomaniacs: The Sources of Our Illusions -- The American Public's Wishful Thinking -- A Glaring Dishonesty of Wishful Thinking -- The Delusions of Wishful Thinking -- Political Partisanship -- The Media -- Journalists -- Commercial Enterprises -- Presidents and Media -- Chapter 5. Key Points -- Part III. American Public Culture and Ourselves -- 5. Champions of Freedom or Imperialists: How We're Perceived -- How We and Others See Us -- President Bush's Image of Americans versus the View from Abroad -- What Polls Say -- The Complex Character of America -- Self-Deceptive Duplicity -- Accusations of Imperialism -- America's Changed Message -- Chapter 6. Key Points -- 7. We're Different Now -- Going Where We Didn't Seek to Go -- How We Americans Have Changed -- A Change in Direction -- After World War I -- After World War II -- After the Vietnam War -- Changes after September 11 -- Iraq - The First Big Test -- Hidden Motivations -- Our Fatal Flaw -- Chapter 7. Key Points -- Part IV. The Reconfiguration of National Wealth and Power -- 8. The Economic Roots of American Power -- American Economic Success -- The American Economic Culture -- The American Economic Creed -- How National Economic Cultures Differ -- How Different Economic Cultures Yield Different Results -- The Economic Cultures of the Great Powers -- China -- Russia -- Japan -- Key Points - Japan's Unique Role -- European Union -- Chapter 8. Key Points -- 9. Economic Disparities among Nations -- The Consequences of Differing Economic Cultures -- The Statistical Record -- The Increasing Gap between Developed and Underdeveloped Nations -- Chapter 9. Key Points -- 10. Geopolitical Aspirations of the Nations -- Nationalist Fervor in China -- Chinese-American Rivalry -- The Trend of the Political Climate in China -- The Growth and Modernization of China's Military -- China in the Future -- Will China Be an Enemy? -- Reviving Superpower: Russia -- Rose-Colored Glasses about Russia -- Why the Soviet Union Imploded: Back to the Future -- Russia - A False Democracy -- Russia Will Rearm -- Rose-Colored Glasses Again -- Russia in the Distant Future -- The European Union: Nation-Building on a Super Scale -- How Europeans Seek to Bind America -- Britain's Special Situation -- The American Response to European Nation-Building -- Chapter 10. Key Points -- Part V. Vortexes of Danger -- 11. A Witch's Brew of Troubles: The Next Big Wars -- Present and Looming Dangers -- Dangers of Many Sorts -- The Biggest Dangers Facing Us -- Terrorism -- Russian Military Resurgence: Rising from the Ashes - From Weakness to Strength Overnight -- Chinese Nationalism -- European Union Unification and Rivalry -- Interactions -- Lessons from Experience -- The MAD World - The Risk of Nuclear War -- Able Archer - 1983 -- Nuclear Missile Defense (NMD) -- The Dynamics of World Disorder -- What Our Leaders Should Do -- Chapter 11. Key Points -- 12. The Middle East -- The Crescent of Fire -- Ummah -- Muslim Terrorism and Autocracy -- The Causes of Terrorism -- The Contest in the Middle East -- Palestine -- The Israeli-Palestinian Smokescreen The Broader Issues -- Justifying Terrorism -- Why We Invaded Iraq -- How the Administration Confused Us about the Purpose of the War in Iraq -- The Ongoing Battle in Iraq -- Satans Great and Small -- Containment -- Chapter 12. Key Points -- Part VI. The American Response -- 13. Strategic Independence: An Ounce of Prevention -- An Alternative to Multilateralism -- Strategic Independence and Engagement -- National Missile Defense -- The Bush Doctrine -- Defense Policy Should Not be Tied to an Overreaching Foreign Policy -- A Window of Opportunity -- Preemption: An Ounce of Prevention Is Worth a Pound of Cure -- World War II Was Avoidable -- Preemption Could Have Prevented 9/11 -- When to Preempt -- Calculating the Risk -- Successful Preemptions -- Napoleon -- Grenada, 1983 -- Preemption and Nuclear Weapons -- The Soviet Union, 1948 -- Soviet Union, Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962 -- Soviet Union, President Johnson, 1963 and Beyond -- Iraq, President George W. Bush, 2003 -- Chapter 13. Key Points -- 14. America as Mature Superpower -- American Military Effectiveness -- Revolution in Military Affairs -- The Myth of War without Casualties -- A Full-Range Military -- The Case against Strategic Independence -- Why Strategic Independence Should Now Displace the Current American National Security Strategy -- Chapter 14. Key Points -- Part VII. Leading Toward Peace -- 15. The Dangers of Overreach -- Overreach -- America as a Model for the World -- America's System Is Too Good to Transfer -- America's System Isn't Good Enough to Transfer -- Beyond Self-Affirming Sloganeering -- Democracy as the Wellspring of Peace -- The Danger of American Overreach -- Chapter 15. Key Points -- 16. The Transatlantic Trap -- The Multilateralist Vision -- Forecasts of a Declining America -- Collective Security Doesn't Work -- The Limits to Being a Team Player -- All the Way via Multilateralism to a World Government -- Multilateralism as an End -- Unilateral Partial Disarmament -- An Independent America -- Chapter 16. Key Points -- 17. The Middle Course -- Adjusting to Major Changes in the World -- Finding a Grand Strategy -- Responding to Russia -- Responding to China -- Shoulder or Shed: Are We Suited to Be a Hyperpower? -- Overreliance on Our Military -- An Inappropriate Public Culture -- Chapter 17. Key Points -- Part VIII. American Presidential Leadership -- 18. How Public Culture Inhibits Presidential Leadership -- Poor Choices for President -- Weak Presidential Leadership -- The Geopolitics of Presidential Personalities -- Harry Truman -- John F. Kennedy as "a Little Boy" -- Vietnam -- The Cuban Missile Crisis -- Domestic Focus in Leadership Selection -- Weak Leadership in Foreign Affairs -- Misjudging Foreign Leaders -- American Presidents' Questionable Skills at War -- President Wilson -- President Franklin Roosevelt -- President Truman -- President Kennedy -- President Johnson -- President Nixon -- President Carter -- President Reagan -- President Bush, Senior -- President Clinton Grading President George W. Bush -- Don't Rely on Advisors -- The Greatest Presidential Challenges -- Chapter 18. Key Points -- 19. Choosing a Great President -- A Leadership Deficiency -- Preparation for the Presidency -- Qualifications for the Presidency -- Experience -- Demonstrated Personal Qualifications -- Chapter 19. Key Points -- 20. Master of Illusions -- A Strong Tide of Truth -- Truth Used to Be the First Casualty of War -- George W. Bush and Our Public Culture -- A Tactical Response versus a Strategic Objective -- A Game Played with Other People's Lives -- The Key Arguments of This Book -- Brief Key Points of This Book.